A number of friends use the old Yiddish saying “From your lips to God’s ears.”  A great saying worth repeating when someone says something one also wishes to come true.

March equity performance has been challenging and today's stock market was particularly ugly.  Waning consumer confidence, persistent concerns over inflation, a potential economic slowdown, and what seems like ever-changing tariff talk, has investors concerned and worried.  This is why today’s news from FactSet is particularly welcome: Based on bottom-up Wall Street consensus data… the S&P 500’s 12-month forecast is nearly 24% higher than today’s close.  From “their” lips to God’s ears!

Earning’s expectations have come down slightly for 2025.  On a bottom-up basis, the S&P 500 components are anticipated to earn $269.92, per FactSet.  As of today’s market close of 5580.94, this puts today’s multiple at 20.68.  Granted, still higher than the ten-year average of 18.3 and the five-year average of 19.9, per FactSet, but not so high that we are running for the hills.  Price targets, and earnings’ expectations change and evolve over time.  Therefore, ongoing monitoring of earnings and earnings' expectations is prudent and warranted.  Should these significantly evolve, we will be in touch - especially should the outlook materially change.

Short-term volatility is likely to continue - after all, the market hates uncertainty, and it seems there are plenty of unknowns, these days.  However, as long as earnings remain resilient, this short-term volatility is likely the price paid for potential longer term equity returns.  

If interested in a discussion regarding specific portfolio issues, or changes in risk preferences, or simply to chat, we welcome the communication.  Thank you for the ongoing confidence you place in us.