Weekend training rides have started for the MS-150, a two-day bike ride from Houston to College Station by way of an overnight stop in La Grange.  Along the route, and over the miles, there are plenty of points to ponder while pedaling.  

Experienced cyclists know that solid equipment, know-how, and a road map, are needed to most efficiently get from point A to point B.  The same goes with investing.  Knowing what one desires to accomplish, along with using the right tools, makes the experience smoother, more enjoyable, and likely more successful.  This roadmap or plan is critical to one’s success.

Cycling over hills can be predictable.  When hills are ahead, adjustments can be made to face the challenge, depending on the magnitude, slope, and duration. Appropriate gear shifts at the right moment make all the difference.  Changing too often causes its own unique set of circumstances, whereas sticking to the less-than-optimal gear can bring greater hardship along the way.  This is also true with portfolio adjustments and allocation changes when the outlook for conditions warrants.   There are times to hold the course, times to adjust to changing conditions, and times when changes impede success.  Let fundamentals dictate the direction and degree, while staying on the right path.  

Winds are a bit trickier.  When part of the forecast, the impact is somewhat predictable and therefore more manageable.  At other times, winds tend to pop up unexpectedly.  Tailwinds make for increased success and smooth efficient riding.  Success tends to come more easily when blowing in the right direction.  Tailwinds in the markets might include higher earnings, increasing multiples, and/or a business-friendly economic / business environment.  At other times, headwinds are more prevalent.  Cyclists and investors agree, headwinds are not fun!  Headwinds might be due to a decline in the overall environment – such as a recession, or a panic, whether inherent or exogenous, one must hunker down, keeping one’s eyes on the ultimate goal and analyze if changes are warranted.  

Occasionally, there are wind gusts.  These tend to be less frequent but more intense.  If not careful, gusts might even knock one off course.  Sticking to one’s plan helps during periods such as these.  Paying attention to fundamentals normally helps with staying on course to the desired goal.

Today, there are numerous hills ahead, and winds seem to be picking up.  There might even be some wind gusts in the forecast.  The question is: Which direction are the winds tending to blow, and over what duration?  Our next update will soon address the current outlook.  Tricky times.  Remaining vigilant.    

Should you, or someone you love, be interested in joining the 2025 Joyce Wealth Management Cycle Crew, we’d be honored to ride together!  We train on the weekends.  The big ride takes place the end of April.  

Should you have any questions about the economy, markets, portfolio, or the ride, we welcome the dialogue.  In the interim…ride on!